Shock to Farmers as Low Rainfall in Short Rains Predicted by Kenyan Meteorologists.

The 2022 year has been rough for farmers in Kenya but with how things are sitting at the moment, things seem to be going south. The recently released Short Rains season prediction by Kenya Meteorologist seems to be a shock to farmers as it comes with low rainfall distribution than expected.

The Climate Outlook for October to December 2022, shows that most of parts the country are likely to experience low rainfall during this season. The reports show that the Eastern part of the country is going to be warmer above average while the Standardized Precipitation Index predicted precipitation for 3 to 12 months showing signs of long-term rainfall deficit in some parts of the country.

Short Rains October-November-December Season

Short Rains 2022 Forecast

The “Short Rains” season is one of the most significant rainfall seasons in a year, especially for farmers based in the Central and South-eastern parts of the country. However, this year’s “Short Rains” season seems to affect farmers in a great way. Most of the parts in Kenya are likely to experience poor rainfall distribution.

Below are some of the areas that are likely to receive below-average (depressed) rainfall as well as the areas expected to receive increased probabilities for below-average (highly depressed) rainfall.

Areas likely to receive below average (depressed) rainfall

  • The Lake Victoria Basin,
  • Highlands West of the Rift Valley
  • Central and South Rift
  • Counties in North Western Kenya;
  • Parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley,
  • Parts of the southeastern Kenya.

Areas with increased Probabillities for below-average (highly depressed) rainfall.

  • North Eastern Counties
  • Coastal region
  • Much of southeastern Kenya,
  • Parts of the Highlands East of the Rift Valley

Though the above the mentioned areas will have different experiences than the previous years, there are some of the parts that are likely to receive near-average rainfall though it will be heading towards the below average rainfall.

This parts of the country include some parts of Western part of the country like

  • Bungoma,
  • Kakamega,
  • Busia,
  • Trans Nzoia,
  • Some parts of West Pokot

However, though the reports starts from October, the peak of the “Short Rain” season is expected to commence in November.

Areas Likely to have normal Short Rain season.